The graph illustrates changes in the birth rate and the mortality rate of New Zealand from 1901 to 2021, and projections for 2101.
Overall, the birth rate was on the rise by 1961 and is projected to decline by 2101. Meanwhile, the mortality rate saw a steady upward trend which is forecast to continue until the end of the twenty first century. In addition, the birth rate was always higher than the death rate until 2021 but the opposite pattern is likely to be seen from 2041 onwards.
Specifically, the birth rate started at 20 per 1000 people in the beginning of the twentieth century and then rose significantly in 1921, followed by a dip by 1941. Afterwards, it soared to a peak of roughly 65 in 1961 before dropping to 50 twenty years later. It bounced back to 60 in 1991, followed by a relatively consistent decline by 2024. By 2101, the rate is predicted to drop to around 42.
With regard to the death rate, it rose twofold to 16 in 1920, followed by a marked drop in 1921. After that, however, the rate increased steadily, reaching 35 in 2021. By 2041, the mortality rate is predicted to surpass the birth rate and keep rising until reaching a peak of 60 in 2091. By the end of the period, the death rate is anticipated to experience a marginal decrease.