The graph illustrates the changes in birth and death rates in New Zealand between 1901 and 2101. It shows the actual data up to 2021, while the figures beyond that are projections.
Overall, birth rates were higher than death rates for the majority of the period. However, from around 2041 onwards, death rates are expected to surpass birth rates, indicating a potential natural population decline in the future.
Between 1901 and the mid-1960s, New Zealand’s birth rate saw a significant rise, increasing from around 25,000 to a peak of 65,000. This peak occurred during the 1960s, after which the birth rate fluctuated slightly but generally declined, stabilizing at approximately 50,000 by 2021. In contrast, the death rate remained relatively stable during the first half of the century, slowly increasing from about 10,000 to 20,000.
Looking ahead, the projections indicate a continuous decrease in the birth rate, dropping to around 40,000 by 2101. On the other hand, the death rate is expected to rise significantly, surpassing the birth rate around 2041 and reaching over 60,000 by the end of the period. This shift marks a dramatic change, as New Zealand is predicted to experience a natural population decline starting from 2041, when the number of deaths exceeds births.