Population Growth and Decline Around The World - IELTS Listening Answers & Explanations

Now you may be wondering why I've entitled this lecture "Decline of the White Man". Well, my lecture today is concerned with the population growth and decline around the world, as well as migratory movements of people. But first of all it's important for us to cast our minds back several hundred years to the time of the great explorers, and the founding of America.

When Columbus discovered America in the 15th century it sparked off the imagination of many people. Europe, at the time, had reached a level of technology and social stability that allowed them to explore the world. And in doing so they realized that the world was much bigger than they'd previously imagined, with vast areas of largely uninhabited land such as the newly discovered America. Moreover, overcrowding in European countries, together with the desire for economic expansion, led many people to look to the newly discovered lands.

However, not only was America sparsely inhabited, it was rich in natural resources such as iron ore, coal and tin. In other words, it meant that the people of Europe could increase their already significant wealth, and in doing so increase their domination over the world. So it was that many thousands of people migrated to the new land. Over time, of course, America rose to become an economically very powerful nation. A superpower, in fact. And as a superpower they now dominate world trade.

But let us come back to modern day Europe for a moment. What we see happening today is a rise in the number of educated people who are keen on developing well-paid careers. And whilst this, in itself, is not a problem, young people are marrying much later in life, and having fewer, if any children. This is leading to a decline in birth rates. So what many Western countries, not just Europe, are suffering from is an aging population. By an aging population I mean that there are too many old people, who don't work, and therefore don't contribute to the economy. In contrast, there are far too few young people to work, and create wealth for the country.

Now over the past several months I've been involved in some research with a number of colleagues of mine from different universities around the world. As part of our research we've been involved in conducting a demographic survey, when we attempted to track, and catalogue the movement of the world's population.

Now if you take a look at this chart I've prepared ... If I can just get the machine working ... Yes, there we are. OK. Now by looking at this chart you can clearly see that in many countries there are fewer young people than there are old people. This means that the economic burden of caring for the elderly is placed on the shoulders of a few young, working people, not just governments. In the past, of course, fewer old people would have been cared for by a far greater number of young people. Today the situation has reversed, putting a huge financial strain on young people.

Now let's turn our attention to Asia. In Asia there are countries such as India and China that have a vast population. This means that labour is very cheap. So two things are happening. One is that more and more companies are outsourcing work to Asia. In other words, they manufacture their goods in Asian countries, where wages are low, and sell them in Western countries for inflated amounts.

This is good for Asian countries, of course, because it means they can develop their economies. But as Asian people grow wealthier many decide to go overseas to study, or even immigrate, in some cases. Don't forget that many countries need skilled people such as engineers and nurses. So what we are witnessing today is a massive shift in the world's population from Eastern countries to Western countries.

Now if you take a look at this second chart I've prepared you'll see that in 1999 alone, over 250,000 people moved from Asia to Western countries such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and, of course, here in Britain. And over 80 percent of migrants were university students.

But if we look back to the beginning of the 1990s, we can see a gradual rise in the number of migrants, from somewhere in the region of 45,000 in 1990, through to 136,000 in 1995 and 200,000 twelve months later. And based on the present rate of expansion, we estimate that by the year 2010 somewhere in the region of three quarters of a million people will migrate from Asian countries to Western countries every year!

Asians though are generally far more family-oriented than Western people are. Obviously, this is merely a cultural difference. But what it does mean is that they are more likely to have more children, and at a younger age. So what this means is that as the white population decreases, the Asian population increases. Therefore, by the end of the century, it may well be an Asian country that has the economic power.

However, do not be misled into thinking that this is a modern-day phenomenon. It's not. It's simply the natural ebb and flow of populations. It's a universal law of nature that certain populations grow in strength as others weaken. It happens just as much in the animal kingdom as it does in the world that humans live. Therefore, it's wrong to assume that we should do something to change what is happening, or try to prevent it in some way. What we should do however, is simply trying to understand the forces involved, and through our investigations try to gain a better understanding of the world in which we live.

That concludes the lecture for today. But if any of you would like to follow up on some points I've mentioned here today then I've put together quite a comprehensive reading list for you.