The line graph illustrates the changes in the birth and death rates in New Zealand from 1901 to 2101.
Overall, birth rates were consistently higher than death rates throughout most of the period. However, it is predicted that death rates will surpass birth rates after around 2040. Both rates show notable fluctuations over the 200-year span.
In 1901, approximately 22,000 births were recorded compared to around 10,000 deaths. Between 1901 and 1940, both rates increased gradually, but the birth rate rose more significantly. A sharp rise in births was observed after 1940, peaking at about 65,000 in the 1960s, likely due to a post-war baby boom. Meanwhile, death rates continued to grow steadily but at a much slower pace, reaching about 25,000 by 1961.
From the 1960s onwards, the birth rate began to decline dramatically, dropping to around 45,000 by 2001. This downward trend is projected to continue, reaching approximately 30,000 by 2101. In contrast, death rates are forecast to rise steadily, overtaking birth rates around 2040 and reaching nearly 60,000 by the end of the century. Consequently, New Zealand’s population dynamics are expected to shift significantly.